Track record

Every situation the monitor has flagged, with what happened to it. Live situations are excluded from the statistics until they resolve, because counting unresolved positions as wins is how track records lie.

2 resolvedno hit rate quoted below 20 resolved situations — the number would not mean anything yet
Live now2
Resolved2
Completed1
Terminated1
Mean return from flag-8.1%
Median return from flag+12.8%
Best+12.8%
Worst-29.1%

Every resolved situation

TickerAnnouncedOutcome Return from flag
TEST2026-03-11closed+12.8%
NULL2026-01-20terminated-29.1%

Returns are measured from the price at the moment the pipeline flagged the situation to the resolution price, with no position sizing, no costs and no leverage. They are not what a portfolio would have made. Deals that broke are in the table at their real, negative numbers — that is the entire point of publishing this.